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Modelling of Index System of Economic Vitality During the COVID-19 Epidemic

Shenglan Chu, Jinming Cao, Bin Zhao

Economic vitality is an important indicator to measure the level and potential of economic development. The paper puts forward three social problems about economic vitality and establishes a model to solve them. We build panel data model to analyze the influencing factors of economic vitality. Based on the section data of Beijing, the VARVEC model is established to analyze the long-term and short-term effects of economic policies on economic vitality. The development strategy of ORT is put forward, and the scheme to promote the growth of economic vitality is given during the COVID-19 epidemic.

For the first problem, the papers pre-process panel data, and tests its independence, and find that each factor is not independent of each other. Through the correlation analysis, we found that there is a strong correlation between the various elements. After Random Effect Test and Fixed Effect Test combined with Hausman Test, the data panel conforms to fixed effect model. Population change and enterprise vitality have a positive impact on economic vitality, the influencing factors are 0.01 and 0.07 respectively. We put forward the strategy of adjusting the overall structure of enterprises to improve economic vitality.

For the second problem, the paper selects the section data of Beijing city and constructs the VAR-VEC model. Based on ADF unit root test and Johansen co-integration test, we find that there are at least three co-integration relationships between time series. We use Ais-Sc Criterion to determine the order of delay as the third order. We use OLS estimation method to get the coefficients of VEC Model. Through the IRF response, we find that the longterm impact of economic policy on economic vitality is positive correlation effect. Due to the effect of experience accumulation, the economic vitality presents a W-shaped trend.

For the third problem, the paper uses the minimum average deviation method to pre-process the index data, and get 9 representative indexes. We extract two main factors by factor analysis and build an index system of economic vitality. The economic vitality of each city from 2009 to 2017 is calculated according to the index system. Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou and Shenzhen often rank first, while Kunming and Dongguan often rank last. Based on the same data, the panel data model test results are similar to index system.

For the fourth problem, we review the previous conclusions and put forward the ORT development strategy to improve economic vitality based on the established model.