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Landsliding in the UK: A Statistical Analysis of Long-Term Trends in Intense Rainfall Events

Edward Mark Lee*

Intense rainfall events are known to be important controls on landslide activity in the UK. This paper presents an analysis of daily rainfall records from 56 stations throughout the UK involving the application of a non-parametric statistical test to evaluate the significance of any trends in these time series. Four intense rainfall scenarios are considered: >25 mm/day; >40 mm over 2 days; >60 mm over 3 days and >80 mm over 7 days. The results indicate that there is significant spatial variation in the long-term trends. A positive trend of increasing intense rainfall event frequency is not present across the UK except at some upland stations in the Scottish Highlands and Southern Uplands, and the Northern Pennines.