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Cutting Through the Fog: A Window into Complexity

John McCaskill

Policy design takes place in an environment of extreme uncertainty and complexity. This paper addresses how we integrate human decision making capacity with the realities of complex systems in order to yield positive outcomes and avoid decision paralysis. It begins with a discussion of naturalistic or expert decision making and describes biases that can be introduced into the process through the use of heuristics which can result in suboptimal choices. From there, a high level description and overview of complexity science is presented in terms of an alternative paradigm to help explain why heuristics can be a double edged sword in decision making in a complex implementation environment. Finally, a new tool is described that may be useful in reviewing policy in the context of a vague and uncertain political and societal environment.