भूविज्ञान और भूतज्ञान जर्नल
खुला एक्सेस

अमूर्त

Climate Change Impact and Adaptation in South Omo Zone, Ethiopia

Enyew BD and Ronald Hutjis

In Ethiopia rain-fed agriculture that is highly sensitive climate change and variability, accounts for much of the country’s GDP. This study covered two parts-the first part assesses the impact of climate change on biophysical parameters such as temperature and precipitation in South Omo zone and the second part portrays an over view of adaptation mechanisms to climate change the region. A Statistical downscaling model was developed and validated using large-scale predictor variables derived from the National Centre for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) reanalysis data and observed station data that was achieved in order to establish a statistical relationship between large-scale NCEP reanalysis predictor variables and locally observed meteorological variables. The relationship obtained was then used to generate the possible future scenarios of meteorological variables such as temperature and precipitation using large-scale predictor variables obtained from the GCM, HadCM3 outputs for A2 and B2 emission scenario. The downscaling was done for intermediate (2021-2050) and far future (2070-2099) periods. The validation results of the SDSM revealed a good agreement between simulated and observed values for temperate. But the model underestimates simulated precipitation. The impact assessment over the south omo projects an increase in precipitation in both periods. Both the minimum and maximum temperature are projected to increase in a range of 0.5°C to 1.20°C for both intermediate and far future periods. For future period the potential evapotranspiration could also increase due to the rise of temperature that leads to more severe drought. Enclosed range land management was proposed by study for climate change adaptation, for this a capacity building training was given for the pastoralist community on range land management. Developmental activities by the government on that part of the area could be a treat and an opportunity for the pastoralist community for adaptation of climate change.